Rent or Buy?The honest math, from someone who appraises homes for a living
Market check

7 yrs
Buying pulls ahead
First-year monthly cost
Home price growth buying needs
Income this home needs
1

Are you ready to buy at all?

Before any spreadsheet, five questions decide whether buying is even on the table. A "not yet" isn't a failure. It means renting is buying you time to get there.

2

Your net worth, both ways

Each line is what you'd walk away with if you left at the end of that year. The buyer sells, pays the agent and any tax, and pays off the loan. The renter started with the same cash and kept it invested, plus whatever share of each month's savings they actually invest. Where the lines cross is your breakeven.

Walk-away net worth by year BuyRent and invest

If you sell in…

3

What you pay each month

Owning costs more up front. But the principal and interest payment is locked for the life of the loan, while rent keeps climbing. This chart shows total monthly cash out the door, including taxes, insurance, upkeep, and any tax savings.

Monthly cash outflow Owning, all-inRent plus renter's insurance

4

Is rent really throwing money away?

Renters lose their rent. Owners lose something too: interest, property tax, insurance, upkeep, the cost of buying and selling, and the investment return their down payment could have earned. Principal isn't on this chart, because paying it down is saving, not spending.

Unrecoverable costs, first year, per month

5

Where the wealth comes from

At the year you leave, here's what builds each person's net worth, and what takes it away. Bars to the right add wealth. Bars to the left are costs of getting out: selling fees and taxes.

Net worth breakdown

6

How sure can you be?

Nobody knows what home prices or the stock market will do. So instead of one answer, here are dozens. Each cell reruns the whole model with a different assumption, centered on yours. Gold cells favor buying, violet cells favor renting, and the outlined cell is your current scenario.

Buying's advantage

7

The cash flows, line by line

This is the comparison laid out the way an appraiser would: every dollar in and out, by year, then the sale at the end, all discounted back to today. Open any group to see what is inside it.

Discounted cash flow

8

Year by year

Every number behind the charts. The highlighted row is the year you plan to leave.

Show the full table
9

How this model works

No black box. Here's every assumption, so you can disagree with it.

For education only. This isn't financial, tax, or legal advice, and it can't know your full situation. Tax rules reflect current federal law as of September 2026 and can change. Talk to a licensed professional before making a decision this size.